October Prognostication

As we sit in the brief 15 hour window between the game that finished deciding the playoffs and the game that begins them, it's time to make some predictions and let the world shoot holes in my reasoning. Hopefully, I'll be able to keep this daily throughout the playoffs as I did a few years back. Of course, I didn't have a job then, which made it much easier...

Here goes!

Rockies v. Phillies -- Phillies in 5.

The Rockies have had an unbelievable second half of the season...again. I think that magic and the strength of their home-field advantage when in the mountains buys them two wins. Eventually, though, the Phillies superior pitching will prevail. Unlike in 2007, Cole Hamels actually has some playoff mileage now and it will show. Cliff Lee will be fine. Maybe if the Rockies had de la Rosa I would follow my heart instead of my head. The only doubt that lingers is that Brad Lidge seems to now remember who he is. Bad closing doesn't fare well in October.

Twins v. Yankees -- Yankees in 5.

In the name of full disclosure, you can read all about my allegiance to the Twins this postseason in yesterday's entry. When I look at this series I reflect on a few things: the advantages of the Metrodome, the Twins' 17-4 record over their last 21 games, the ability of recent Yankees teams to lay an egg in the playoffs (and especially the divisional round). Then it's all eclipsed by the planet known as CC. The Twins are not going to beat Sabathia tonight (which, I assume, is one of the reasons they're basically throwing out a sacrificial lamb to pitch...it's like tying up a goat and waiting for Tyranosaurus CC to come out of nowhere). The Twins are not going to beat Sabathia in a game 5 in Yankee stadium, either.

All of this makes game 2 the most important game of this series. Nick Blackburn stood toe-to-toe with Zack Greinke on Saturday and out-pitched him. The Twins have a chance to win this game. If they do, game 3 can be won on energy alone. Which means the Yankees will bring back CC for game four. Against Scott Baker. This is the one chance the Twins have...and it's not a good one. If the Twins lose game 2, all the Homerun Hankies in the world aren't going to take 3 in a roll from a superior rotation.

I can still believe, though.

Cardinals v. Dodgers -- Cardinals in 4.

A lot of people have been getting on the Dodgers for dragging it through the final month. Haven't we seen this before, though? Isn't this what Joe Torre teams do? Sandbag September then come alive in October? I don't believe the Dodgers are completely dead. I do believe, however, that your rotation most often wins a short series, and the comparison between starters here is not even close. The Cardinals have the best two pitchers in this series (Carpenter and Wainwright) going in the first two games in LA. The Dodgers better light it up big and light it up quick. But I doubt it will happen. The Dodgers' arms are younger overall. And the offense hasn't sparked in the magnitude they need lately. The Cardinals will finish this off in St. Louis...I give it four games only because something quirky usually happens in these series.

Red Sox v. Angels -- Angels in 5

I've preached about pitching a lot in this blog. But which is more important, this season or past playoff performances? I give the nod to recent history here. Also, when pitching is close, I give the nod to the more consistent offense. Something just isn't quite right with these Sox...

Some would say the Angels need to win game one to vanquish their demons of postseasons past. I think Lester might even be able to take this game..but the Angels will still win the series. I'm not sold on Beckett anymore, or on Buchholz. I think Scott Kazmir is still one of the best-kept secrets in baseball. And, again, the Sox this year just lack...something.

Maybe it's innocence lost with the Big Papi steroid talk...I don't know. The magic seems gone.

I'll make predictions round-by-round, of course. But for the record, here's a brief prediction for the rest of the playoffs:

ALCS: Angels over Yankees in 7

NLCS: Cardinals over Phillies in 5

WS: Angels over Cardinals in 7

Fire away!

Dome Sweet Dome

I've found myself increasingly interested in the MLB pennant races over the past week. Admittedly, this happens to me in most years, as the Reds become mathematically eliminated and underdogs cross the line from "Wouldn't that be nice?" to "Holy Hell! This might just happen!" This past week however, has struck me with an unusual intensity. I didn't realize it initially, but had to stop and think on it, when I found myself yelling at the TV at a baseball game on Saturday.

Generally, there are four reasons this might happen:

A) I'm watching the Reds in a game that actually counts

B) I'm rooting for someone to complete one of those magical baseball moments, like a no-hitter or perfect game.

C) I'm rooting against a hated team to make the playoffs (i.e. Red Sox, Yankees, Cardinals)

or

D) The success of my fantasy team is on the line.

Saturday's game in question was between the Twins and the Royals. Neither team remotely falls in my "hated" zone, so that takes out reason C. The game didn't involve the Reds and, besides which, neither the Reds nor my fantasy team have been alive for some time. Thus go reasons A and D. And, other than being a fabulous pitcher's duel for 6 innings, no baseball feats were threatened in this game. If we take out reason B, then why was I yelling at this game? What came over me? It took me a while, but I figured it out: The Hefty Dome.

The Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome (opened in 1982) is a dinosaur by current ballpark standards. Instead of inviting natural grass, the field is made up of turf, with cut-outs for the base areas and the pitcher's mound. The outfield seats are mostly high above the wall, making room for pushed back bleachers that can be pulled out for football games. The classic MLB on TV camera angle from behind the pitcher shows only wall and exhaust fans. Balls bounce high off the floor, players don't kick up tufts of turf, and luxury boxes look like out-of-place eyesores. Charm is non-existent...unless you grew up a baseball fan in the 80's.

The Metrodome is everything baseball was in the 1980's. A inorganic, decidedly non-intimate crater of a park that lent itself towards speed and pitching (look at those foul areas!) instead of homers and "fan experience." And the Metrodome was one of the most legendary of these parks! Plastic that looks like garbage bags stretched over the right field bleachers: check! The Teflon dome responsible for hundreds or thousands of lost balls: check! The in-play speakers: check! And (cue the national anthem playing quietly in the background) GENERAL ADMISSION SEATING!!!! Say it with me: GENERAL ADMISSION SEATING!!!!

Can any one place remind me so much of both my days as a boy watching baseball on TV and going to Old Cardinal Stadium to watch the Redbirds play live? Let's face it, children of the 80's, these outdated, ugly, multi-purpose parks are the foundation of our baseball heritage. They're you're first car: not pretty, not completely functional, but a hell of a lot of fun. I have nothing but good memories of these parks. (Including sitting almost top-row in swirling winds in an early May game at the Vet. It wasn't cozy, but it was an experience).

It's funny. for all of the hubbub over how crappy the Metrodome was, I attended two ballgames there, and had a great experience both times. Say what you want about how close the fans sit now, and how great the experience is, the fans make the experience. And Twins fans make it more than most. For instance, do you realize that the Twins are undefeated at the dome in the World Series? A perfect 8-0. No team has a better home-field advantage than the Twins right now (not even you, Fenway, or you Wrigley. When everyone, and I mean everyone starts showing up for just the baseball, we'll talk). When the dome is packed, no one can beat it.

I think of my own fan-dom, and I wonder. Am I better off in Great American Ballpark than I was in the yellow deck of Riverfront Stadium? Sometimes I wonder. I love the standing room vistas of the new park, and many of the amenities, and the aesthetics...but is it all that much better? Is it better?

In the end, though, the better question is "does it matter?" Progress is progress and people who go to the park on a regular basis do not need to be confronted with the end-warehouse scene from every 80's action movie on the way to their seats. The deserve comfort. But I deserve my memories. At least, for one more damned October, I deserve my memories.

I call upon you, fellow baseball fans of my generation. If your team is out of the playoffs, band together in support of the Minnesota Twins. Band together in support of our baseball heritage. As artificial turf goes the way of the dinosaur (except in Tampa, though the Rays didn't exist in the 80's) and Toronto, where Skydome started the trend toward stadium decadence). I want to hear the shear volume as, one more time, Minnesota fans blow the roof off of the Hefty Dome and, as I turn 30, watch major-league baseball finally completely distance itself from the baseball I knew in my youth.

I'm not bitter about it, mind you. I love several of the new stadiums, and look forward to taking my own children to grow up watching baseball in these places (and watching many more games on TV at these places). I simply relish one last look at turf manipulated to look like a lawn-mower cut it, choppers that take off like super-balls, and exhaust fans...oh, those suspiciously large Metrodome exhaust fans. Oh, and the innocent youthful exuberance that baseball has never lost for me...just sometimes misplaced.

Long live the Dome! WHO'S WITH ME??!!!!!!!!!!!

Series Spectacles

Well, I missed Monday again.



So Sports comes to you on Tuesday again this week. We'll chalk it up to another win by I (heart) Hefeweizen, which is now leading Livin' La Vida Other Cat. Technically, I'm tied for record but leading on points.



As a matter of fact, I'm tied with Gerald who made a trade with me a couple of weeks ago. In a league where trades are rarer than bigfoot sightings in Meijer, the two guys bold enough to pull one off reign supreme.



But that's not what I'm here to discuss today. With the World Series starting tomorrow, I thought I'd put out one more prediction blog. Before we get to predictions, though, I want to take a look back. I was reading an article earlier that was discussing recent World Series and it got me thinking of my favorite Fall Classics. My memory of the Series goes back to about 1987. I remember bits and pieces of games before that, but not entire series. Including that year there have been 20 World Series. Of these, the ones that follow were the 5 best in my opinion.



Honorable Mention: 1990: Reds 4, A's 0

It's not in the top 5, but I would be remiss if I didn't mention Cincy manhandling the A's. An

artificial, selfish mention, yes, but it's about all we've had in the last 20 years.



5) 1993: Blue Jays 4, Phillies 2

A very exciting, highly unpredictible series on the surface. A series that ended with a walk-

off homer. I remember being glued to the TV for this one. The only thing that holds this one

back a bit was a subtle feeling I had all along that the Jays were going to win. Not a

predicition-like feeling. Not a gut feeling. The knowledge like it had already happened.

Personally, it took a little bit out of it for me.



4) 2001: Diamondbacks 4, Yankees 3

Many people look back on this fondly as the end of the Yankees' dynasty. Others remember

it as the crowning of Mr. November. Of all of the World Series that happened while I was in

college, this is the one I remember most. This is probably in no small part thanks to the

Yankees for domilishing their opponents in the other 3. (I particularly remember going on a

band trip to Tampa in 1998 and missing nearly the entire series). Anyhow, back to 2001. A

seven game series that came down to the most improbable finish I've seen: Porfessional

shitstain Craig Counsell getting hit by a pitch to bring up Luis Gonzalez with bases full to

stirke a bloop hit off the best closer the game has ever seen. Unbelievable. Jeter's game 4

homer, equally so. And let's not forget everyman Scott Brosius having hsi day.



3) 2002: Angles 4, Giants 3

Another 7 game series. After 2001 reinvigorated my passion for the series, 2002 did not

disappoint. I remember being drawn into Rally Monkey mania and rooting hard for the

Angels to take it. An Angels team that, mind you, I couldn't have cared less about two

months before. The postseason makes strange fans sometimes. Close games, not-so-close

games. High scoring games, low-scoring games. It was a roller coaster of a series with the

Angels down 3-2 coming back home to the Monkey. I also remember the emergence of

Francisco Rodriguez, which was a thing to see in and of itself.



(Random Fact: David Justice played for 14 seasons. 13 of those had a World Series. He played in the World Series 7 times. (1991, 1992, 1995, 1996, 1997, 2000, 2001) Not the postseason mind you. the WORLD F'N SERIES. Now that's a career. )



2) 1996: Yankees 4, Braves 2

I don't know if this series just hit at the right time in my life, but few sports events have

enthralled me more than this series did. So many moments stick out. Leyritz's series-

changing shot in Game 4. John Wetteland's perpetually dirty cap. Wade Boggs on that damn

horse. And Charlie Hayes still haunts my nightmares. For me, though, the signature moment

of this series is a popout caught by Paul O'Neill in right to end the bottom of the ninth,

wrapping up one of the finest pitching duals ever seen in the Series or any game for that

matter. Pettitte/Smoltz. Eight innings apiece (8 1/3) for Pettite. Golden Boy Chipper Jones

on third after a leadoff double and a groundout (with his hot wife getting plenty of camera

time in the stands). And Wetteland...and that cap...put the game away. I stayed up late for

this one. Simply one of the best games I've ever seen, though it often seems overlooked by

"experts" in this category.



1: 1991: Twins 4, Braves 3

Generally considered one of the best World Series of all time, it's impossible to find anything to fault here. The worst-to-first storylines of the teams coming in (The young stars and pitching depth of today's Rays look so much like the 1991 Braves, every AL East team should sleep less easy tonight). Kirby Puckett looking like a superhero in game six, carrying his team on his back and back into the series. (I also remember Puckett crashing hitting the old plexiglass they used to keep up in above some of the walls to catch a flyball that might have been a homer. I remember he looked like a hockey player crashing the boards. I'm not crazy). The Metrodome going apeshit crazy. Hell, even Fulton County Stadium was lively. Seven games of ravenous fans that needed baseball success. However, the series can be summed up in a line:



10 7 0 0 2 8



Let's try that with labels: 10 ip 7 hits 0 runs 0 earned runs 2 walks 8 strikeouts



10 innings...no runs...7th game of the World Series. That's 10...T-E-N innings. That's clutch. That's Jack Morris. That was the 1991 World Series.



Alright. Now that I've gotten that out. A prediction. Hamels can make or break the Phillies. Game 1, after a week off, against Scott Kazmir. Now, I've had both of these guys on my fantasy team. I'll take Kazmir. Yeah, Hamels has the nasty stuff, but Kazmir is the better pitcher, I think. In the TropDome, I don't see pitchers making it through without freak homers. Hamels' fastballs put him at more risk. Game one, and momentum goes to the Rays. They'll continue through game 2. A well-seasoned Jamie Moyer will give Phillies fans hope in Game 3 before the Philly fans torch Citizen Bank Park. Balnton has been lights out and will continue to be so in Game 4. Game 5 could go either way, and will be the Phillies only chance at this series. For some reason, though, I see Mr. Cool Kazmir weaving his magic again. If the 'pen can hold together (and with Price emerging, I think it might happen), the Rays can take that one and send it back to Tampa where Big Game James can fianlly live up to his billing.

World Series Prediction: Rays 4, Phillies 2

See you at the ballpark tomorrow night!

Laziness > Drive

That pretty much says it all. I back up last Wednesday's blisteringly optimistic blog (complete with schedule) with...nothing for almost a week. Now, I've promised that lit-loving bunch (I use that word lightly. At last review I have two followers to my blog) new material tomorrow.

I have a few sports observations to make, though, and I got lazy yesterday and missed the date. I don't want to multi-purpose tomorrow's blog, so I'll sneak in some random thoughts on Tuesday.

Leading off:
It wasn't merely laziness that led me to miss my time yesterday. It was the Hawks, baby! Blackhawks hockey on TV, at long last. Of course, I stayed up fighting off sleep only semi-successfully to watch them lose pitifully in shootout at 11:something. But it's hockey goodness. For those of you baseball fans out there, i can't stress how important it is that you discover this wonderful sport. The regular season trades off almost perfectly with baseball and the the playoffs of each just overlap that "warming-up" period at the beginning of the season. I fell in love with the sport watching live. This may not be a possibility for all (though if it is, jump on it). However, you can still adopt a team and join in the fun. Don't let your winters be sports-passion
free, eh! Open a a LeBatt and try oot some hockey this season.

High-average base-filler:
This does being my first gripe of the night. It was my understanding that the Hawks were supposed to be on WGN Satruday night. I was pumped. Then...nothing but a rerun of Boston Legal. Do the WGN games not apply to the cable feed? I mean, we get Cubs and Sox games. We get the local Chicago news, for Pete's sake! But no Hawks? Just another example of the man keepin' hockey down.

Patented slugger:
A barn burning season in the Other Cat fantasy football league this year. For those of you that aren't familiar, this is my #1 league, populated by basically the same guys for the last ten years. The league with a waiting list to get in. I've enjoyed having a part in a league that has pretty much unique scoring (we used a lot of trial and error on this), great desire from all 12 managers. But enough about the league itself. What matters is 11 teams within two games of first. We're almost halfway through the season! Only Seabold's Tom Brady Withdrawal All-Stars are further out.

Clean-up:
The Phillies continue to look strong. Going into the playoffs it was obvious they weren't the frauds they were last year. But why is it I'm still not sold on their pitching?

Sean Casey:
If you look around on the web, you can find several ideas for reallignment of the NHL to make it more viable. Almost all of them agree the NHL needs to be smaller. Barring major disaster, the powers that be won't let this happen. I was brainstorming the other day, though, and came up with what I feel would be an ideal 22-team league based on city size, desire of fans (read; more Canadian teams), and geography:
Northwest: Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnepeg, Mnnesota
Northeast: Montreal, Ottawa, Quebec City, Toronto, Hamilton or London,
Southwest: Detroit, Chicago, Colorado, Pittsburgh, Buffalo,
Dallas (odd, I know, but good fans there)
Southeast: Boston, New York, New Jersey, Philly, Washington

The way I see it, North plays South for the cup each year. The Canadians are almost assured of playing for the cup each year (only Minnesota can douse their hopes, but they're practically Canadian anyway)

Aging slugger:
In my heart, I would prefer to have a team in Regina or Saksatoon. The logical side of me likes filling in that whole in the geography. the generous side of me wants to see Saskatchawon have at least 1 team. They would probably enjoy it more than Washington, but the geography's a bitch. (Put in Regina, move Minnesota to the southwest, move Pitt or Buffalo to the Southeast, but only one. Which one? Blah blah blah). Trust me, I spent 20 minutes here with an atlas trying to figure it out.

The newbie brought up for his glove:
Looks like AAA baseball will be shaken up again. I know Toronto is switching their affiliation from Syracuse for the first time in their history. Going west if I recall. Also, Cleveland is switching from Buffalo to in-state Columbus. And yet Toronto isn't taking uber-close Buffalo. Odd that. The Reds are going strong with the Bats though, which is a good thing, considering how often guys bo up and down there. I mean, gas is bad enough to cart those guys from Louisville to Cincy. Could you imagine airfare?

The catcher:
So I take a slight downgrade in backup QB to get Felix Jones as my 2nd RB. He gets hurt and Thomas Jones (the guy I took OUT of my lineup) cleans up. Maybe it is knid of funny when I suffer. As long as I get the W, that is.

The pitcher's spot (we don't need no stinkin' DH!)
Ironically, I'll use this spot to speak on the ALCS. I just turned it on to a 5-1 Ray lead in the top of the fourth. I thought Wakefield was going to be pitching. But unless he took 15 years or so off his face, droped the Knuckler, and picked up a sidearm delivery, this ain't him. So either Boston changed their mind on who to start or the Rays already ran him out. The Rays coming back to win after dropping the first game showed me a TON of heart. If they win the first two in Boston, how can I pick against them in this series? How can I pick against them in the World Series? This is big, folks. If revenue starts to come in to keep some of these players, you're looking at the Atlanta Braves circa 1991-1992. Look for big things.

Wow...that was long.

Again, new lit tomorrow (first of a series!)