Here goes!
Rockies v. Phillies -- Phillies in 5.
The Rockies have had an unbelievable second half of the season...again. I think that magic and the strength of their home-field advantage when in the mountains buys them two wins. Eventually, though, the Phillies superior pitching will prevail. Unlike in 2007, Cole Hamels actually has some playoff mileage now and it will show. Cliff Lee will be fine. Maybe if the Rockies had de la Rosa I would follow my heart instead of my head. The only doubt that lingers is that Brad Lidge seems to now remember who he is. Bad closing doesn't fare well in October.
Twins v. Yankees -- Yankees in 5.
In the name of full disclosure, you can read all about my allegiance to the Twins this postseason in yesterday's entry. When I look at this series I reflect on a few things: the advantages of the Metrodome, the Twins' 17-4 record over their last 21 games, the ability of recent Yankees teams to lay an egg in the playoffs (and especially the divisional round). Then it's all eclipsed by the planet known as CC. The Twins are not going to beat Sabathia tonight (which, I assume, is one of the reasons they're basically throwing out a sacrificial lamb to pitch...it's like tying up a goat and waiting for Tyranosaurus CC to come out of nowhere). The Twins are not going to beat Sabathia in a game 5 in Yankee stadium, either.
All of this makes game 2 the most important game of this series. Nick Blackburn stood toe-to-toe with Zack Greinke on Saturday and out-pitched him. The Twins have a chance to win this game. If they do, game 3 can be won on energy alone. Which means the Yankees will bring back CC for game four. Against Scott Baker. This is the one chance the Twins have...and it's not a good one. If the Twins lose game 2, all the Homerun Hankies in the world aren't going to take 3 in a roll from a superior rotation.
I can still believe, though.
Cardinals v. Dodgers -- Cardinals in 4.
A lot of people have been getting on the Dodgers for dragging it through the final month. Haven't we seen this before, though? Isn't this what Joe Torre teams do? Sandbag September then come alive in October? I don't believe the Dodgers are completely dead. I do believe, however, that your rotation most often wins a short series, and the comparison between starters here is not even close. The Cardinals have the best two pitchers in this series (Carpenter and Wainwright) going in the first two games in LA. The Dodgers better light it up big and light it up quick. But I doubt it will happen. The Dodgers' arms are younger overall. And the offense hasn't sparked in the magnitude they need lately. The Cardinals will finish this off in St. Louis...I give it four games only because something quirky usually happens in these series.
Red Sox v. Angels -- Angels in 5
I've preached about pitching a lot in this blog. But which is more important, this season or past playoff performances? I give the nod to recent history here. Also, when pitching is close, I give the nod to the more consistent offense. Something just isn't quite right with these Sox...
Some would say the Angels need to win game one to vanquish their demons of postseasons past. I think Lester might even be able to take this game..but the Angels will still win the series. I'm not sold on Beckett anymore, or on Buchholz. I think Scott Kazmir is still one of the best-kept secrets in baseball. And, again, the Sox this year just lack...something.
Maybe it's innocence lost with the Big Papi steroid talk...I don't know. The magic seems gone.
I'll make predictions round-by-round, of course. But for the record, here's a brief prediction for the rest of the playoffs:
ALCS: Angels over Yankees in 7
NLCS: Cardinals over Phillies in 5
WS: Angels over Cardinals in 7
Fire away!
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